Weekly Market Recap & Catalysts

Stocks showed significant resilience this week, demonstrating solid momentum across major global indices. A notable addition to the market leadership is the Korean KOSPI, which has surged to become the “leader of leaders” on a Year-to-Date (YTD) basis.

Conversely, the crypto market faced downward pressure, and WTI Crude Oil dropped sharply, finishing the week down -8.4%.

Industry & Sector Performance

We are witnessing a broadening of market performance, with numerous specific industries beginning to outperform the broader benchmark indexes.

• Strong Sectors: Cybersecurity, software, and homebuilders booked impressive gains this week.
• Rate-Sensitive Boost: A pullback in yields provided a welcome tailwind, directly boosting both the Real Estate and Utilities sectors.

Global Fixed Income & Macro

Rates & Yield Movements

Treasury yields experienced a general softening over the week, though the U.S. 10-year note flirted with the 4.70% mark earlier in the session before cooling down. Below is the fixed income performance matrix as of May 22, 2026:

Fed Expectations & Volatility

• Monetary Policy: The market is currently pricing in one 25bps hike expected in January 2027.
• VIX: Market volatility subsided slightly, with the VIX closing down on the week at 16.70%.

Equity Deep Dive & Factors

S&P 500 (ES) & Key Drivers

The S&P 500 futures contract showed robust buying interest starting Wednesday, turning around ahead of the highly anticipated NVDA earnings release. NVDA’s financial results came in a bit better than expected, keeping the broader tech narrative intact. On the other hand, WMT disappointed the market with its latest update.

Quantitative Factor & Theme Performance

• Quantum Computing: Transformed into the week’s absolute standout thematic leader after the U.S. government announced intentions to take equity stakes in 10 prominent sector names.
• AI Hardware & PCs: Rocketed higher on Friday following a strong, expectation-beating earnings report from Lenovo.
• China ADRs: Faced intense selling pressure on Friday after China’s securities regulator announced plans to penalize three prominent cross-border brokerages, renewing regulatory anxieties regarding Beijing’s stance on internet firms.

The Week Ahead: Calendar & Catalysts

The final week of May brings compressed holiday trading and a flurry of central bank communication. A deal with Iran seems to get imminent.

Macroeconomic Calendar

• 25-May: U.S. and U.K. Markets Closed (Bank Holiday)
• 26-May: ADP Weekly Employment; FHFA House Price Index; Conference Board Consumer Confidence
• 27-May: MBA Mortgage Applications; Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index; Dallas Fed Services Activity
• 28-May: Building Permits; PCE Price Index (The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge); Initial Jobless Claims; GDP
• 29-May: Advance Goods Trade Balance; Retail Inventories; MNI Chicago PMI

Central Bank & Supply Catalysts

• Fed Speakers: An incredibly packed schedule features heavy commentary, highlighted by Governor Cook speaking on AI’s economic/financial system impacts, and Governor Waller addressing stablecoins.
• Bond Auctions: The US Treasury will auction supply across 2-Year ($69B), 5-Year ($70B), and 7-Year ($44B) durations.

Corporate Earnings & Flows

Keep a close eye on retail and enterprise tech names reporting this week, alongside critical structural flows.

• Key Earnings to Watch: Salesforce (CRM), Box, HP, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Best Buy, Dell, Costco, and Ulta.
• Market Flows: Anticipate volatile late-week positioning via the SPY Weekly Straddle (+/- 1.3%) alongside End of the Month Flows and the official MSCI Rebalancing on Friday.

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