As a follow up from last week blog on 2024 Asset Performances vs 2016 post election: Your Election Next Trades A great tool built below by @Maverick_Equity to track 2024 Asset Performances vs 2016 post elections. Now sharing the same tool with The Discord Community and spreadsheet. Join our Discord community for in-depth discussions, access […]
Trump 2.0
The U.S. markets had their best week of the year, with the S&P up 4.7% and the Russell 2000 soaring 8.6%. This rally mirrored trends seen in 2016, albeit with even larger moves across sectors. European markets were less enthusiastic, with Euro stocks down by 1.5% due to weaker currency performance. Meanwhile, Japan and the […]
Your Election Next Trades
If you were trading on November 6, 2024, it’s a day you’ll likely remember with a bit of nostalgia. We saw significant shifts across various asset classes. With Trump now elected and the first major market reaction behind us, let’s focus on identifying potential trades for the next 2-3 months. Let’s begin by reviewing the […]
Finish line
This week’s update of Your Next Trade covers critical market events shaping our week ahead, from the U.S. election results to the Federal Reserve’s next moves. 📅 Upcoming Market Events: U.S. Elections (Tuesday): A highly anticipated event that could take longer to confirm if the results are close. Both asset markets and polls suggest a tight race between Harris […]
The Final Countdown
We are on the edge of significant market-moving events with the U.S. elections, FOMC meeting, and a potential Chinese economic stimulus all set to unfold in just 10 days. Here’s a recap of the key takeaways and insights to help you navigate these turbulent times. U.S. Elections: The U.S. election momentum is surging, with […]
Never Short a Dull Market
Over the last six months, the S&P 500 has experienced a steady climb from 5,000 to 5,900, reflecting a 17% growth. Despite this rise, market volumes have been decreasing, signaling low participation from traders. With hedging dominating the options market, participants continue to expect a downturn, though stocks keep grinding higher. In the meantime, due […]
Netflix Expected Move Update
A quick follow up from yesterday’s post: https://substack.com/home/post/p-150347144?r=35zth&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web to take into account Thursday Move and Netflix price at the close. Using NFLX Thursday’s close at $687.65 And ATM Straddle = 25.57 + 25.27 = $50.84 We end up with following bounds: Upper Bound = 687.65 + 50.84 = $738.49 Lower Bound = 687.65 – […]
Netflix Expected Move
Here is the usual thread of the earnings season: Understanding Past moves (Realized Volatility) vs Future Moves expected (Implied Volatility). Let’s take NFLX Netflix as an example. Netflix will release its earnings after the close. Now for the expectations: Let’s look at how the stock has been moving during recent earnings: That translates […]
Jobs Weakness?
Welcome to this week’s newsletter, where we recap Episode 78 of Your Next Trade. This episode covered the latest trends in the markets, highlighted key economic indicators, and previewed the upcoming earnings season. Strong U.S. Job Market Shifts Expectations Last Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) numbers surprised with 254,000 jobs added—far exceeding the anticipated 150,000. Despite […]
China Stimulus
Welcome to this edition of Your Next Trade. In this episode, we delve into the long-awaited Chinese stimulus package impact on global markets. If you missed this week’s episode, here are the key takeaways and market insights you need to know. China’s $560 Billion Stimulus: Market Impact and What’s Next Last week, we anticipated significant action […]