President Trump made headlines again, visiting a Fed building and criticizing Chair Jerome Powell for being “too late” on rate cuts. Trump argues that rates are 200 basis points too high and is expected to ramp up pressure if the Fed holds steady at this week’s FOMC meeting.

FOMC Preview:

• 📅 Meeting: Wednesday
• 📉 Market expects no change (98% probability)
• 📆 Next potential cut: September (60% chance)

  

   

📊 Markets at a Glance

Despite the noise, markets are climbing:

• S&P 500: +1.5% (week-to-date)
• Japan: +4.1% (post-election stimulus hopes)
• Dollar: Sideways, slight weakening vs. Euro (~1.1750)
• Bitcoin: Flat
• Ethereum: New highs driven by stablecoin inflows
• WTI Oil: Down
• Copper: Up

  

   

🏠 Sector Watch: Housing, Healthcare & More

• Homebuilders: Strong earnings despite high mortgage rates
• Healthcare: Catching up after underperformance
• Regional Banks & Airlines: Some profit-taking
• S&P Trend: Broadening strength, but some argue it’s a sign of exhaustion

  

   

📉 Rates & Yields

• US 10-Year: 4.4%
• Japan 10-Year: 1.6% (+7 bps)
  • Reflects global trend of rising yields due to deficits and bond supply
  • Higher financing costs are the new normal

    

     

🧠 Earnings Season: Strong Top-Line Beats

• 500 companies reported (20% of US market)
• Sales beats: +2% vs. usual +1%
• Earnings beats: 80%+ of companies
• Notable: Google raised capex by $10B, signaling strong AI investment

  

🧪 Macro Catalysts This Week

This is the busiest week of the year for macro and earnings:

🧾 Economic Data:

• Wednesday: US GDP (+2.5% expected)
• Thursday: Core PCE
• Friday: NFP Jobs Report + ISM Manufacturing (US & Global)

  

   

💼 Earnings Highlights:

• Big Tech: Meta, Microsoft, Amazon
• Other Sectors: Visa, Starbucks, Energy names

  

   

🧨 Volatility: Calm Before the Storm?

• S&P 30-day implied vol: <15%
• Weekly straddle pricing: ±1.3%
• Retail traders: Still active in short-dated options (e.g., OpenAI-style meme trades)

Despite looming catalysts, the market is pricing in calm. Protection is cheap—but few are buying it. As always, this could end in tears, but for now, the grind continues.

📈 Chart of the Week: S&P Futures

The long-term uptrend remains intact. Most stocks are trading above key moving averages. While some signs of overextension exist, momentum remains strong.

💬 Community & Mentoring

Interested in joining the trading community or mentoring program?

• Discord: 1 free channel, 30+ premium channels ($75/month)

  https://discord.com/invite/Yf42SgAx7f

  https://buy.stripe.com/5kA3dmdVV1g4cuIaEE

• Mentoring: Limited seats for September start

For any questions or to join our mentoring sessions, email us at

Greg📩 Contact: greg@duponttrading.com

🧭 Final Thoughts

Markets are grinding higher with broadening participation. But with macro data, earnings, and geopolitical developments all converging this week, stay sharp. Volatility may be low—but the catalysts are plenty.

Have a good Trading Week!