Welcome to this week’s edition of Your Next Trade. I’m writing from a cold London morning, but markets have been running hot. The last 10 days delivered one of the strongest “risk-on” sequences we’ve seen in months — driven by options expiry, a textbook volatility reset, and broadening participation across equities, crypto, and commodities.

Below is your full breakdown of what happened, why it happened, and what it means for December.

📈 1. Market Recap: Risk-On Returns After Options Expiry

The story began 10 days ago — during a period when leaders like Nvidia and retail favorites were under pressure. But that weakness reversed sharply into this week’s monthly Options Expiry, following the familiar pattern:

1. Volatility spikes (VIX hit 26%)
2. Equities sell off
3. Fed speakers calm the market
4. Rate-cut odds jump (December cut moved from 40% → 80% → 86%)
5. Volatility collapses
6. Risk assets surge

This has been the standard playbook across the last decade — and once again, it delivered a powerful rally.

💰 2. Relentless Equity Inflows

A key structural force behind the move: massive inflows into equities, both long-term and short-dated.

• YTD equity inflows: $681B
• Last 5 days: $18B
• Shift from active → passive accelerating

  

   

   

ETF and retail participation remain dominant. This contributed to strong weekly performance across indices:

• S&P 500: +3.7%
• Nasdaq: +5%
• Russell 2000: catching up rapidly — a true broadening

  

   

This is one of the most important themes entering December.

🔍 3. Broadening Market Trends

The past week showed genuine broadening across sectors. Nvidia’s underperformance created space for non-AI names and small caps to finally join the rally:

• Tech strong, but not only Nvidia
• Retail and consumer discretionary outperforming
• Value participating as well
• International equities seeing inflows
• Crypto stabilizing above 90,000 after a sharp drop

But the standout move was…

🥈 4. Silver Breaks Out

Silver delivered a massive rally on Friday, breaking above $55 with strong momentum.

The move is overbought in the short term, but the breakout is technically significant. As with past metals rallies, volume will be key in identifying any top.

Gold, WTI, and copper also strengthened, confirming broad commodity participation.

📉 5. Rates, Volatility & Fed Expectations

• 10-year yields still above 4%
• Market pricing an 86% chance of a December cut
• VIX crushed from 26% → 16%

  

   

Lower volatility allows volatility-control funds to increase exposure, adding mechanical fuel to the rally.

We are now in the familiar territory where Fed expectations support risk-taking into year-end.

📊 6. Technical Analysis Highlights

(Full charts discussed in the episode.)

S&P 500 & Nasdaq

Strong monthly reversal candles. The trend remains intact. New highs likely if momentum continues.

Bitcoin

Unfavorable candle structure. Rejections continue.
A move toward 72k–75k possible, but 65k still looks likely on the chart.

Google (GOOGL)

The week’s biggest winner.
Clean breakout from the 205–210 range.
Momentum extended — don’t rule out a pullback.

Nvidia (NVDA)

Weaker structure: lower lows vs last month.
150–160 is the next key zone.

Oracle

Most of the downside move likely completed, but still waiting for a confirmation signal.

FX

• EUR/USD: stuck in a narrow range (1.15–1.19)
• USD/JPY: still targeting 160–162 as the market challenges the BoJ

🤖 7. The AI Divergence Trade: GOOGL vs NVDA

This was the week’s most important narrative.

The “Google complex” outperformed aggressively as expectations for Google’s Gemini and TPU efficiency grew. Meanwhile:

• NVDA lagged
• AI-related mega caps showed separation
• Traders generated strong alpha long GOOGL vs short NVDA

  

   

   

If hyperscalers reduce dependence on Nvidia hardware, the knock-on effect could be meaningful — not just for equities, but for credit markets given how much capex is tied to AI infrastructure.

This remains a must-watch theme for December.

🛍 8. The U.S. Consumer: Still King

Ahead of Black Friday, expectations were muted. But once again, the U.S. consumer surprised:

• Early data shows +4% YoY
• Cyber Monday expected strong
• Retail remains resilient

Despite inflation pressures and a rising “poverty line,” spending capacity among the broad middle class continues to exceed narrative-driven expectations.

This is supportive for retail names and the broader equity market into year-end.

📅 9. Key Catalysts for the Week Ahead

Macro Data

• ISM Manufacturing (Monday)
• ISM Services (Wednesday)
• Backlog of U.S. economic releases

Earnings

A few late-cycle names, but not market-moving.

The Fed

• FOMC blackout period
• Still hearing from Powell & Bowman
• Market focused on December rate cut

Geopolitics

• Russia–Ukraine developments
• Venezuela tensions tied to oil reserves

  

   

📈 10. December Outlook: The Broadening Continues?

The equal-weight S&P (SPW) has started catching up with SPY — a key signal of genuine broadening. With:

• strong inflows
• crushed volatility
• supportive Fed expectations
• resilient consumer spending

…the setup for December remains constructive.

Valuations are high (22–23x earnings), but banks are already issuing 2026 targets above 7,000 for the S&P.

Barring a Fed surprise, the path remains upward — but with rotation rather than a single-driver AI melt-up.

📬 Final Thoughts

This was a textbook post-expiry rally amplified by inflows and volatility suppression.
The next phase hinges on whether this broadening can continue into December and whether AI divergence solidifies into a real trend.

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Have a good Trading Week!