We are back, and so are the S&P and NASDAQ, returning to pre-Liberation Day levels. April was a bumpy month, but it was perfect for traders. Let’s dive into the latest market developments.

Market Overview

• S&P Futures: After the Liberation Day announcement, the market saw a selloff from 5700 to 4800 due to recession fears. One month later, stocks have recoup their losses.

  

  S&P 500

• US Treasury Yields: The pressure on the credit market led to calls for the Trump administration to slow down. This situation is reminiscent of past credit market forces in emerging markets and the UK.
• S&P Recovery: The S&P has recovered to 5700, with stocks showing strong performance, averaging 3% gains across the board on the week, except for China. 

Week-to-Date Asset Performance

• Stocks: Strong performance with 3% gains.
• US Dollar: Slight weakening.
• WTI: Below $60, influenced by OPEC’s announcement to increase production.

  

   

Industry Performance

• Sectors: Defensive sectors like healthcare and consumer staples underperformed, while industrials and financials showed strength, indicating reduced recession fears.

  

   

Rates and Fed Expectations

• US 10-Year Yields: Trading between 4% to 4.5%, with recent movements between 4.15% to 4.35%.
• Fed Funds Rates: Expectations have shifted from four cuts to three cuts in 2025.

Volatility and Market Behavior

• Implied Volatility: Still above 22%, suggesting potential for further market gains as volatility sellers may push the market higher.

Technical Analysis

• S&P and NASDAQ: Both indices are trending higher, with potential targets around 5,800.
• WTI: Continues to show weakness, unable to break above $60.
• Gold: Significant selloff from the 3,500 level.

Earnings Season

• US Earnings: Strong performance, with earnings beats higher than expected.

  

  Earnings Season after 357 out of 500 S&P 500 Companies Results.

• AI Sector: Positive outlook from Meta and Google, indicating continued investment in AI.

Retail and Hedge Funds

• Retail Inflows: Record inflows of $40 billion, while hedge funds have been reducing exposure.

Upcoming Events

• Tariffs: Ongoing discussions and potential impacts on US companies.
• PMI and ISM Services: Key indicators to watch on Monday.
• Inflation Data: New York Fed inflation data on Thursday.
• Central Bank Meetings: FOMC, Riksbank, Norwegian banks, and Bank of England.
• Bond Supply: Significant bond issuance next week.

  

   

Asian Currencies

• Taiwan Dollar: Strong performance, with insurers holding US Treasuries and weakening the currency.

  

  Taiwan Dollar Spot One Day Performance.

Community and Mentoring

• Join Our Community: Our Discord community offers both free and advanced channels for in-depth discussions: https://discord.com/invite/Yf42SgAx7fAccess to 30 channels for just $74.99 per month. https://buy.stripe.com/5kA3dmdVV1g4cuIaEE
• For personalized mentoring, reach out soon as slots are filling up quickly.

Have a good Trading Week!

For any questions or to join our mentoring sessions, email us at

Greg📩 Contact: greg@duponttrading.com