I hope you had a great summer. Many of you shared your winning trades from the past few months—congratulations! While some educators were busy trading from the beach, I chose to fully unplug. Now, let’s dive into the markets and what’s ahead.

🏦 Powell at Jackson Hole – Did He Cave?

Jerome Powell struck a slightly more dovish tone at Jackson Hole, sparking headlines about him “caving.” But let’s look at the facts:

• September Fed expectations: Still 75–80% probability of a rate cut, slightly lower than before his remarks.

  

   

• Employment vs. Inflation:
  • NFP shows job growth slowing (just 30k–50k per month on average).
  • Inflation is ticking higher, reinforced by ISM PMIs and Walmart’s outlook (tariffs adding to inflation in coming months).

Powell is balancing slowing employment with stubborn inflation—while avoiding a repeat of 2021–22’s inflation missteps.

📊 Market Performance

Year-to-date (YTD):

• S&P 500: +10%
• NASDAQ: +11%
• Russell 2000: catching up with strong momentum
• US Dollar: -10%, meaning US assets underperformed on an FX-adjusted basis
• Ethereum: +45% (boosted by stablecoin legislation)
• Bitcoin & Gold: +25% each

  

   

Week-to-date (WTD):

• Russell 2000: +3% (biggest winner)
• S&P 500 / NASDAQ: flat
• Social media, semis, big tech: underperforming
• Regional banks & small/mid caps: leading

👉 The theme: rotation away from mega-cap tech into broader sectors.

💹 Rates & Fed Outlook

• US 10-Year Yield: steady at ~4.26% (range 4.2–4.5%)
• September: ~80–90% chance of a cut
• December: now priced for a second cut (back to the Fed’s original 2025 plan)

😮 Volatility & Retail Activity

• VIX: 14%, compressed below long-term averages
• Options activity: record call volumes, especially in zero-day expiries

  

   

• Retail traders: still fueling momentum in familiar names

🔍 Technical Picture

• S&P 500: Grinding higher, near all-time highs
• NASDAQ: Slight pullback but above the 50-day MA
• Russell 2000: Strong breakout, supported by dovish Fed tone
• EUR/USD: Stuck in 1.16–1.18 range

Rotation continues—tech consolidates while small/mid caps show strength.

🖥️ Key Earnings & Data to Watch

• NVIDIA earnings (Wed, post-close):
  • Implied vol: 5.8%, nearly equal to realized vol (rare setup due to compressed vol).
  • Expect volatility around China/export headlines and sector rotation.

    

     

• Other names: Retail, CrowdStrike, Snowflake
• Macro data:
  • Building permits (Mon)
  • PCE inflation (Fri) – critical for September Fed decision
  • University of Michigan sentiment
  • Treasury auctions ($200B+ in supply)

    

     

🎯 Looking Ahead

• Market still pricing +/-1.2% weekly S&P move (~70–80 points).
• Rotation broadens market strength—watch Russell & regional banks.
• Inflation data will determine whether September rate cuts stick.

📚 Back-to-School Learning

Our 4×4 educational video series is available, plus limited spaces in the mentoring program for the next 3–6 months (especially US & Asia time zones).

If you’d like to join or explore our 30+ private trading channels, now’s the time.

https://discord.com/invite/Yf42SgAx7f

https://buy.stripe.com/5kA3dmdVV1g4cuIaEE

For any questions or to join our mentoring sessions, email us at

Greg📩 Contact: greg@duponttrading.com

Have a good Trading Week!