This week’s call was packed with updates across asset classes—from bonds and gold to equities like Lululemon and Broadcom. Let’s dive into the highlights.

📰 The Big Picture: Weak Jobs, Strong Market Reactions

• U.S. Jobs Report: Only 22,000 jobs were created in August, far below consensus. Since May, job growth has been stalling, raising questions about the strength of the labor market.

  

   

• Bond Market Rally: U.S. 10-year yields broke below 4.10%, fueling expectations for a more dovish Fed. Markets are now pricing in three rate cuts by year-end 2025.

  

   

• Key takeaway: The bond market remains the most important driver—watch yields closely.

🪙 Gold Breakout Confirmed

• Gold surged +4% this week, cementing its role as the primary flight-to-safety asset.

  

   

• For the first time in months, bonds are also fulfilling that role again, giving investors multiple hedging tools.
• Gold miners followed suit, outperforming alongside bullion.

📊 Sector & Asset Class Moves

• Equities: S&P 500 was flat overall, but dispersion was wide:
  • Losers: Energy (dragged by falling WTI crude, -3%), Financials (pressure from lower yields), Utilities (AI infrastructure slowdown).
  • Winners: Homebuilders (benefiting from lower yields), Gold miners, and Telcos (Alphabet strength).
• Currencies: The U.S. dollar stayed weak, down ~10% YTD vs. major peers.
• Commodities: Oil slid on expectations of extra OPEC supply.

  

   

📌 Stock Spotlights

• Alphabet (GOOGL): Strong rally after regulators signaled no forced breakup of Chrome/Google.
• Broadcom (AVGO): Post-earnings surge as money rotates out of Nvidia into broader AI plays.
• Lululemon (LULU): EPS guidance cut from $14 → $12 for 2026. Stock plunged ~17%. Lesson reinforced: earnings revisions drive stock trends.

  

   

🏦 Macro Watch: Fed, CPI & Bond Supply

• Fed Funds Outlook: Market pricing in 3 cuts (Sep, Oct, Dec). Some chatter of a 50 bps “jumbo” cut in September, though likely premature.

  

   

• Inflation Data:
  • CPI expected at +3.1% YoY core this week.
  • Fed tolerance seems to be shifting—“3% is the new 2%.”
• Bond Auctions: Heavy issuance scheduled (Tue–Thu). Watch demand closely.

   

⚡ Other Highlights

• Volatility (VIX): Modest uptick but still compressed (~15%).
• IPO Market: Initial pops remain common, but new IPOs have underperformed on average in subsequent weeks.
• Seasonality & PMI: Recent global PMI numbers improved, suggesting some resilience in services and manufacturing.

🔮 What to Watch This Week

• Key data: CPI (Thursday), PPI, bond auctions.
• Events: Oracle (Tue) & Adobe (Thu) earnings, ECB rate decision, and a busy conference calendar.
• Themes: Inflation stickiness, bond demand, and gold’s continued momentum.

  

   

👥 Community Note

These insights are shared and debated daily in our Discord trading community. If you’d like deeper dives—like the upcoming AI second-wave playbook webinar—stay tuned or drop me a note.

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Have a good Trading Week!