Follow up from January, graphs only: Caterpillar vs Emerging Markets (since 2009) Caterpillar vs Emerging Markets (since 2017) Caterpillar vs China Caterpillar vs Deer since 2000 Caterpillar vs Deere since 2016 I hope it helps, Gregoire
The Low Volume Factor
The recent stock rally from the the 26th of December 2018 lows to the 1rst of May 2018 was (again) characterized by low volume. On one hand, some will argue that it is risky to go against a dull market, that you should not fight the trend. On the other hand, some will argue that […]
Mentoring Sessions – Top 3 Ideas
I just wanted to share some of the ideas covered this week during several mentoring sessions. In no particular order, with price taken on the day of the session: 1. Long Call 24 December 2019 UG Peugeot Cost option = 2 Target Stock = 32 => call @ 8 Risk reward = 1:3 Comments: “2018 […]
Short-Term Trading: possible if realistic.
For the record, people who will say that short term trading is not possible should rather say that they do not have the ability to do it or do not have the right set-up. I have been in the industry for long enough to know that long-term fund managers will portray anyone with a shorter […]
Crude Oil – Update from 2 months ago
Right before the last OPEC meeting in December 2018 and to avoid the classic noise surrounding the Oil market, I tried to get a better understanding of the supply-demand at that time. My conclusions were: “Oil market is correctly supplied, with a small excess of roughly 500k barrels for each of the last 2 quarters.But […]
Auto Sales – Impact from tariffs
Automobile Industry had a very difficult 2018. China had a very tough year with sales down yoy. Europe was flat but German Production is down 9% in 2018. … What about 2019 and brexit impact (specially for Germany)? What about possible tariffs from the U.S. on European vehicles and Auto parts? Let’s have a quick […]
Market Capitalization vs Enterprise Value.
The concept of Enterprise Value is one of the first thing I looked at during my mentoring program. If anyone is only mentioning Market Capitalization for justifying a company’s valuation, that person is missing the big picture. Market Capitalization could be the tree that hides the forest. For example, recent move in General Electric stock […]
China, Emerging Markets, Caterpillar.
Caterpillar reached an all time high 12 months ago. Yesterday, the stock collapsed 9% after bad earnings and outlook. Over the last 12 months, the stock is down 24%. To make any trader happy, let’s do a bit of backtrading or some “I told you so” from BBC or Bloomberg…: First thing first, ISM from […]
Europe… the trend is not my friend.
The ISM across Europe peaked in January-February 2018. Since then Europe is facing an abrupt slowdown of its activity. Germany is leading the pack and the latest numbers are adding to the bleak picture. Recession is here and spreading. The German PMI went below 50 in January. And comments are not particularly optimistic: “The survey’s […]
Brexit and Idea Generation
With Brexit looming, the U.K. is facing a very busy start of the year and 2019 overall. Next week, Theresa May will try to get the backing for a deal agreed with the E.U. To make it short (if that is possible): – If the vote goes through, then it will be pass into law […]